Sets

Star Trek forecast

Last updated · Scryfall data of Oct 23, 2026

Which new Star Trek cards will Commander players put in their decks? This page ranks all 233 cards from the main set (TRK) and the Commander decks (TRC), forecast before the Nov 13 release. Popularity means Scryfall's edhrec_rank. It does not measure card strength.

Not high accuracy yet. On past sets the forecast correlated with real popularity at about 0.32 for commanders and 0.54 for other cards (0 is a shuffle, 1 is perfect). Treat it as a rough order.

Method

Older Commander cardstext, cost, colors, types, known popularity
Text modelweights each word and phrase
Pairwise modelwhich of two cards is played more
Blendaverage of the two percentiles
New cards, orderedcommanders, other spells and lands ranked separately
  • Text model. Words and phrases carry weights learned from older cards.
  • Pairwise model. Learns which of two same-release cards got played more, using facts from Manayard's card parser.
  • Blend. Each score becomes a percentile among older cards; the blend is the average.

Models were tested by hiding later cards, forecasting them and comparing with real popularity. How the tests were run

Results

Each category is ranked separately. Blend is the forecast score from 0 to 1. Text only is the same card's rank from the text model alone; where it differs from the blend rank, treat the order as a guess. Select a card to see its image and what pushed its score up or down.

Commander candidates 79 cards

#CardSetBlendText only
1TRC0.981
2TRK0.962
3TRK0.965
4TRK0.963
5TRK0.946
6TRK0.937
7TRK0.928
8TRK0.929
9TRK0.914
10TRK0.9111
11TRC0.9010
12TRK0.9012
13TRC0.8916
14TRC0.8922
15TRC0.8914
16TRK0.8818
17TRK0.8613
18TRC0.8530
19TRK0.8527
20TRK0.8429
21TRK0.8421
22TRK0.8323
23TRK0.8217
24TRK0.8225
25TRK0.8036
26TRC0.8031
27TRK0.7928
28TRK0.7826
29TRK0.7824
30TRK0.7820
31TRK0.7719
32TRK0.7315
33TRK0.7337
34TRC0.7232
35TRK0.7140
36TRK0.7134
37TRC0.6733
38TRK0.6739
39TRK0.6641
40TRC0.6643
41TRK0.6538
42TRK0.6456
43TRK0.6449
44TRK0.6344
45TRK0.6245
46TRK0.6235
47TRK0.6050
48TRK0.6046
49TRC0.6063
50TRC0.5968
51TRK0.5953
52TRC0.5942
53TRC0.5748
54TRK0.5455
55TRK0.5358
56TRC0.5247
57TRK0.5154
58TRK0.5061
59TRK0.4957
60TRK0.4864
61TRC0.4852
62TRK0.4651
63TRK0.4159
64TRK0.4073
65TRK0.3965
66TRK0.3860
67TRK0.3669
68TRK0.3662
69TRK0.3467
70TRK0.3372
71TRC0.3366
72TRC0.3270
73TRC0.3271
74TRK0.2875
75TRC0.2777
76TRC0.2374
77TRC0.2278
78TRC0.2176
79TRK0.1879

Other spells 139 cards

#CardSetBlendText only
1TRC0.982
2TRK0.974
3TRC0.963
4TRK0.961
5TRK0.955
6TRK0.957
7TRK0.956
8TRK0.9416
9TRK0.9313
10TRC0.938
11TRK0.9314
12TRK0.9311
13TRK0.9212
14TRK0.9010
15TRK0.9015
16TRK0.8920
17TRC0.8829
18TRC0.879
19TRK0.8724
20TRK0.8619
21TRK0.8618
22TRK0.8525
23TRK0.8433
24TRK0.8422
25TRK0.8317
26TRK0.8230
27TRK0.8228
28TRK0.7932
29TRK0.7927
30TRC0.7723
31TRK0.7731
32TRK0.7634
33TRK0.7541
34TRK0.7549
35TRK0.7535
36TRK0.7553
37TRK0.7339
38TRK0.7226
39TRK0.7148
40TRK0.7056
41TRK0.6937
42TRK0.6921
43TRK0.6938
44TRK0.6767
45TRK0.6759
46TRK0.6645
47TRK0.6542
48TRK0.6146
49TRK0.6062
50TRK0.6051
51TRC0.6065
52TRK0.5954
53TRK0.5947
54TRK0.5960
55TRK0.5966
56TRK0.5844
57TRK0.5850
58TRK0.5757
59TRK0.5743
60TRK0.5774
61TRK0.5755
62TRK0.5694
63TRK0.5668
64TRK0.5658
65TRK0.5573
66TRK0.5540
67TRK0.5469
68TRK0.5363
69TRK0.5261
70TRC0.5279
71TRK0.5236
72TRK0.5072
73TRK0.5077
74TRK0.5064
75TRK0.4780
76TRK0.4752
77TRK0.4685
78TRK0.4582
79TRC0.4381
80TRK0.4371
81TRK0.4270
82TRK0.4186
83TRK0.4175
84TRK0.4178
85TRK0.3976
86TRK0.3996
87TRC0.3992
88TRK0.38107
89TRC0.3793
90TRK0.3691
91TRK0.3688
92TRK0.3690
93TRK0.3587
94TRK0.3484
95TRK0.3289
96TRK0.31103
97TRC0.3197
98TRK0.3095
99TRK0.2883
100TRC0.28104
101TRK0.2798
102TRK0.26121
103TRK0.25100
104TRC0.24111
105TRK0.24101
106TRK0.24106
107TRC0.24102
108TRC0.24116
109TRK0.22110
110TRC0.22113
111TRC0.22120
112TRK0.2299
113TRK0.22112
114TRC0.21127
115TRK0.21109
116TRC0.20115
117TRK0.19123
118TRK0.19108
119TRK0.19117
120TRK0.18105
121TRK0.17114
122TRK0.16124
123TRK0.16126
124TRK0.15119
125TRK0.15118
126TRC0.15125
127TRK0.14128
128TRK0.13122
129TRK0.12131
130TRC0.10130
131TRC0.10133
132TRK0.09132
133TRK0.09136
134TRC0.08134
135TRK0.08129
136TRC0.05135
137TRK0.05137
138TRC0.04139
139TRC0.04138

Lands 15 cards

#CardSetBlendText only
1TRK1.001
2TRK0.992
3TRK0.993
4TRK0.974
5TRK0.975
6TRK0.956
7TRK0.9510
8TRK0.948
9TRK0.947
10TRK0.9311
11TRK0.9312
12TRK0.9315
13TRK0.939
14TRK0.9214
15TRK0.9213

Limits

10 of 233 cards have text the parser cannot fully read. Scores are not probabilities. Real ranks arrive after release, and the forecast will be graded against them. Full write-up